Post Touchdown Attempt: Exploring Strategies, Success Rates, and Key Insights

Football is a game of strategy, strength, and precision. Among the most intriguing aspects of this sport is what happens after a team scores a touchdown—the post touchdown attempt. These moments can significantly impact the final score and shape the trajectory of the game. Whether it’s a one-point kick or a high-stakes two-point conversion, these attempts reflect a team’s tactical approach, risk tolerance, and game-time decision-making.

This article delves into the concept of a post touchdown attempt, offering insights into its importance, common strategies, historical success rates, and the factors that influence a coach’s decisions.

Understanding the Basics of Post Touchdown Attempts

After a team scores a touchdown, which earns them six points, they have the opportunity to add to their score through a post touchdown attempt. The two primary options for teams include:

1. Extra Point (Point-After-Touchdown or PAT):
   • A team kicks the ball through the uprights from a set distance, typically the 15-yard line in professional football (resulting in a 33-yard field goal attempt).
   • Success earns the team one additional point.
2. Two-Point Conversion:
   • The team attempts to carry or pass the ball into the end zone from the two-yard line (in most leagues).
   • Success earns the team two points.

Each option carries its own risks and rewards, and the decision often depends on the game’s context and the team’s confidence in their offense or special teams.

Historical Success Rates of Post Touchdown Attempts

Analyzing historical data helps teams strategize effectively. Over the years, the success rates for these attempts have varied slightly, influenced by rule changes, player skill levels, and environmental factors.

1. Extra Point Success Rates:
   • Historically, extra points were almost automatic, with success rates hovering around 99% before the NFL rule change in 2015, which moved the kick back to a 33-yard attempt.
   • Since the rule change, success rates have dropped slightly to about 93-95%, making the extra point less of a guarantee.
2. Two-Point Conversion Success Rates:
   • Two-point conversions are inherently riskier, with success rates averaging around 48%.
   • Success largely depends on the team’s ability to execute short-yardage plays, their offensive schemes, and the defense’s readiness.

Key Factors Influencing Post Touchdown Attempt Decisions

Coaches consider several factors when deciding between an extra point and a two-point conversion. These include:

1. Score Differential:
   • If a team is trailing by one or two points late in the game, a two-point conversion might be necessary to tie or take the lead.
   • Conversely, teams leading by a slim margin may choose the safer extra point to extend their lead.
2. Time Remaining:
   • Early in the game, teams often opt for the extra point to secure the guaranteed point.
   • In the final moments, when every point becomes crucial, coaches may lean towards a two-point conversion to maximize their scoring potential.
3. Team Strengths and Weaknesses:
   • A team with a strong, reliable kicker is more likely to choose the extra point.
   • Teams with dynamic offenses and versatile playmakers may favor the two-point conversion.
4. Weather Conditions:
   • Windy or rainy conditions can complicate kicks, making the two-point attempt a more viable option.
5. Opponent’s Defense:
   • If the opposing team has a weak red zone defense, a two-point conversion becomes a more attractive gamble.

Strategies for Maximizing Success in Post Touchdown Attempts

To enhance their chances of success, teams employ various strategies for post touchdown attempts:

1. Precision and Consistency in Kicking:
   • For extra points, the focus is on the kicker’s technique, timing, and mental preparation. Special teams also play a vital role in protecting the kicker and ensuring a smooth snap and hold.
2. Innovative Play Calling:
   • Teams use creative two-point conversion plays to catch defenses off-guard. These might include misdirection, trick plays, or exploiting mismatches.
3. Analyzing Opponent Tendencies:
   • Studying film of the opposing defense helps teams identify weaknesses and plan effective two-point conversion plays.
4. Simulating High-Pressure Scenarios in Practice:
   • Recreating game-like conditions during practice ensures players are ready to execute under pressure.

Notable Post Touchdown Attempt Moments in Football History

Several iconic moments in football history demonstrate the importance of post touchdown attempts:

1. Super Bowl XXXVIII (2004):
   • The New England Patriots and Carolina Panthers faced off in a tightly contested game. A missed PAT by the Panthers ultimately affected their ability to close the gap, underscoring how even seemingly minor decisions can have significant consequences.
2. The Philly Special (Super Bowl LII, 2018):
   • While not a post touchdown attempt, this trick play by the Philadelphia Eagles exemplifies the creativity that can also define two-point conversions. Coaches often draw inspiration from such moments when crafting conversion strategies.
3. The “Chart-Driven” Decision by Doug Marrone (2018):
   • The Jacksonville Jaguars head coach controversially opted for a two-point conversion early in a game based on analytics. Although it didn’t succeed, the decision sparked discussions about the growing role of data in post touchdown attempts.

The Role of Analytics in Post Touchdown Attempts

In modern football, analytics has transformed how coaches approach post touchdown attempts. Advanced metrics provide insights into:

1. Win Probability Models:
   • These models calculate the likelihood of victory based on the score, time remaining, and other variables. They often suggest when a two-point conversion is statistically advantageous.
2. Expected Points Added (EPA):
   • This metric evaluates the impact of a decision (e.g., kicking vs. attempting a two-point conversion) on the team’s overall scoring potential.
3. Risk-Reward Analysis:
   • By analyzing historical success rates and situational factors, teams can make more informed decisions.

Analytics doesn’t eliminate the element of risk but helps coaches weigh their options more systematically.

The Future of Post Touchdown Attempts

As the game evolves, the importance of post touchdown attempts will only grow. Potential developments include:

1. Further Rule Changes:
   • Football leagues may tweak rules to add more excitement to post touchdown attempts, such as introducing new distances for extra points or altering the two-point conversion setup.
2. Technological Enhancements:
   • Wearable devices and real-time analytics tools could provide coaches with even more precise data to guide their decisions.
3. Cultural Shifts:
   • As younger, analytics-savvy coaches enter the league, we might see a greater emphasis on two-point conversions, even in unconventional situations.

Conclusion

The post touchdown attempt may last only a few seconds, but its impact resonates throughout a football game. From the thrill of a successful two-point conversion to the reliability of a well-executed extra point, these moments encapsulate the essence of strategy and execution in football.

As analytics continue to shape decision-making, and as teams refine their tactics, the post touchdown attempt will remain a critical and fascinating aspect of the game. Fans and analysts alike will eagerly watch to see how teams navigate these pivotal moments, knowing that even a single point can make all the difference.

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